Why All Eyes May Be On Escanaba

This is another in a series about some of the heavily-contested state House seats.

MARQUETTE — The 108th district, which includes counties in the Upper Peninsula (Delta, Dickinson, Menominee), has flipped back and forth into the Democratic and GOP columns. And it does so in dramatic fashion, although Republicans have enjoyed an edge here. For that reason, it could serve as the bellwether in this election.

 

Here’s what the numbers have looked like. (They don’t add to 100 because of rounding.)

2002                                       2004                       2006                       2008                       2010

REPUB   52%                        69%                        55%                        44%                        60%

DEM       48%                        31%                        45%                        56%                        40%

R +4%                                    R+37%                   R+11%                   D+13%                  R+20%

Incumbent Republican Ed McBroom enjoyed an easy (60-40) win two years ago over then-Democratic State Rep Judy Nerat, who won by 13 points in 2008. She had been to this dance before. Nerat suffered a 11-point loss to an incumbent Republican Tom Casperson in 2006. Nerat ran again this year, but narrowly lost to challenger Sharon Gray in the August primary by 93 votes, out of more than 5,700 votes cast. McBroom is a longtime dairy farmer. Gray is a CPA from Delta County.  This November’s results could explain if the district is actually a Republican district, or if 2008 was an unusually lucky year for the Dems.

Clues From The Northern Woods

This is the first in a series about some of the heavily-contested state House seats.

MARQUETTE — If the Democrats hope to get control of the state House, the 110th district is one they’ve got to win. The district covers seven counties in the western Upper Peninsula—so far west that some of the district runs on Central Standard Time. Culturally, it’s its own place—and seems more like neighboring Wisconsin than Michigan. (You’ll find plenty of Green Bay Packers jerseys here, but only an occasional Detroit Lions jacket.)

The contest a rematch of the state rep race from two years ago, when Republican Matt Huuki beat Democrat Scott Dianda by a 56 percent-44 percent margin. Huuki got there as part of the Tea Party 2010 push, which also sent Republican Dan Benishek to Congress.

The 110th is not natural GOP terrain. Democrats controlled the seat for years, often rolling up 30 or 40-point margins on Election Day. But that was before the Tea Party and the GOP tidal wave of two years ago. Huuki’s 2010 victory seems all the more astonishing when looking at the district’s history. (Some of the numbers don’t add up to 100% because of rounding.)

Here’s what the numbers have looked like:

YEAR                      2002                      2004                     2006                     2008                       2010

DEMS                      70%                        68%                        63%                        70%                        44%

REPUBLICANS    30%                        25%                        34%                        30%                        56%

ADVANTAGE      D+41%                   D+43%                  D+29%                  D+41%                  R+11%

 

Incumbent Huuki owns a glass repair and body shop in Atlantic Mine, which is about a 10-minute drive from Houghton. Dianda started out as the owner of a party store (which once belonged to his grandfather) in Calumet, served on that village’s council, and is active with the Michigan State Employees Association.

 

Another Way of Saying: Do Your Homework Before You Vote.

 

The League of Women Voters Oakland Area (LWVOA) has been pushing for increased voter engagement for decades. And it’s using the latest and best tools to further that end. Check out this student-produced YouTube video, radio annoucement and essay, which take the message to young people.

1st Place TV PSA

 

1st Place Radio PSA

1st Place PSA Essay by Caroline Jagnow, Rochester Adams High School

In November 2012 the 45th President of the United States will be elected.  This is a significant event for everyone but it will be especially significant for my brother this year.  He has turned 18 years old and he will vote in the Presidential election for the first time.  Whether he is a Republican, Democrat or Independent, I don’t really care that much.  What I do care about is our future.  We need a strong President.  An honest President,  A very smart President.  I’ll admit that there are a couple of things that I want to happen in my future.  I want to be educated, prosperous, safe, and proud.  For this reason, Brother, before you go to the polls this November, I want to make sure that you do a few things.
V         …View all of the candidates equally

O         …Observe some debates

T         …Trust only the facts, not the Advertisements

E          …Examine both sides of every issue

S          …Surf up some of the candidates history

M        …Meet with your friends to hear what they think

A         …Argue it out with them

R         …Reach your decision

T         …Tick the right box on your ballot

Our future is in your hands so I am counting on you to do the smart thing.  The League of Women Voters Oakland Area (LWVOA) and I want to make sure that you Know Before You Go – Be an *Informed* Voter.

What Does $15 a Year Get You? How About A Better Art Museum?

The Detroit Institute of Arts is asking voters for a little help: A millage that would support the DIA for another decade.

Voters in the tri-county area will have a chance to turn thumbs up (or down) on a millage that would bring in a total of $23 million annually from Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties.

The DIA gets no public money from anybody — city, state or federal authorities. The new millage would cost the owner of a $150,00 home about $15 a year.

Detroit Free Press editorial page editor Stephen Henderson tells us about the campaign, and interviews two supporters.

McCotter Cuts and Runs

 

The more one thinks about Congressman Thaddeus McCotter’s sudden resignation from office, the more outrageous the move becomes.

You may recall that McCotter hung it up last Friday after a disastrous year in politics. His run for the presidency went up in flames. An apparently easy bid for re-election went embarrassingly, dramatically and maybe even illegally south after his campaign failed to file enough nominating signatures. The state of Michigan is investigating McCotter’s campaign petitions for possible fraud. And The Detroit News found a copy of a juvenile TV pilot script that McCotter had written. The newspaper noted a number of fart jokes, which pretty much flies in the face of McCotter’s avuncular, smart-guy image.

So he quit.

Think about this: The people of the 11th District have no vote in Congress — none, until somebody new comes in early next year. So, to the folks in Livonia: your voice on the floor of the U.S. House goes silent until next year.

But it gets even worse. McCotter says the Clerk of the House will run his field offices. That part is even more problematic. A congressional office is the usual point of contact for constituents having problems with the federal government. That would include people fencing with Social Security, the Passport office, the Veterans Administration, and countless other agencies in need of a push from somebody with clout. Even simple things, such as a tour of the U.S. Capitol, become easier when your local member of Congress helps out.

That’s a very big job, requiring personal attention from an elected official. If anybody wonders how Congressman John Dingell (D-Dearborn) has stayed in office since 1955, look no further than Dingell’s constituent services.

But instead of just serving out his term, McCotter cut and run.

The timing is curious: He lets loose the announcement on Facebook Friday afternoon – two days after the Fourth of July—a time when many people have left town.

He refuses to answer any questions until the Michigan’s Attorney General concludes an investigation into the botched re-election campaign.

Great. He doesn’t want to talk about his failed campaign. But what about answering specific questions about why he’s leaving? What is he telling his neighbors?

Perhaps there are extenuating circumstances. A depression problem, perhaps? If so, it’s not the first time that has happened in the history of the Republic. There are ways of discreetly handling such difficulties. Say what you will about the 534 other members of Congress, but most consider their sacred oath of office as virtually sacred.

Instead, McCotter pressed the “send” button on his Facebook page and bailed.

Is there a “dislike” button on Facebook?

The MIVOTE Road Show Is In Progress

 

There are 110 seats open in the state House of Representatives. The question every year is: Who are these people.

MIVOTE hopes to answer the question. The Center For Michigan, Detroit Public Television and the University of Michigan–Dearborn are joining forces with the League of Women Voters to help answer the question.

The entire state has been redistricted, which means some seats are open. Other seats have incumbent running against each other. It’s an entirely new ball game, and the job of finding out who is running for office–and why–becomes even more difficult.

The Road Show gives state Rep candidates an opportunity to appear on camera for up to five minutes. They’ll answer four basic questions:

  • What strategies should be pursued to grow Michigan’s economy?
  • What education strategies would you pursue to assure Michigan has a talented, globally-competitive work force?
  • What do you think is the state’s role when it comes to early childhood programs?
  • What strategies would you pursue to help the state’s urban areas?

We’ll interview at least 100 state Rep candidates, and post their videos online.

In addition, we’re providing information on each candidate running for state House.

Some of them are well known. Some are not. It’s an inspiring collection of people who care enough about the state to run for office–and do something constructive.

We hope the project helps voters make informed decision, both in August, and in November.

 

A New Ball Game In Michigan?

A new poll has President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican challenger Mitt Romney locked in a dead heat in Michigan. Read the Detroit Free Press story here.

The story here involves independent voters, who may sway this November’s election. The president has slipped from a 48 percent-40 percent lead in January to a virtual draw with Mitt Romney, who now leads 46 percent-45 percent. (That’s well within the margin of error, so it’s a statistical tie.) This, according to a survey conducted earlier this month by Lansing-based EPIC MRA.

EPIC MRA’s Bernie Porn says the president’s slippage may have a lot to do with non-stop television ads, paid for by free-spending Super PAC’s.

Four Super PAC’s spent $3.4 million on advertising as of May, and nearly all of those ads were directed straight at the president’s campaign. See the Michigan Campaign Finance Network’s report here.

The result? Independent voters have switched from the pro-Obama column to mildly pro-Romney.

Most analysts were putting Michigan into the “leaning Obama” camp. The new EPIC MRA poll suggests that analysts might want to think again.

However, there are a couple of asterisks in the new numbers. As the Free Press’s Dawson Bell writes, North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling had President Obama up by a 53 percent-39 percent margin only last month. Perhaps we’re seeing a sea change in the last month.

Also, Romney’s favorability ratings are still suspect. Slightly more likely voters view him unfavorably (43 percent) to those who view him favorably (41 percent).

And there is one other statistic that may nag Romney clear through November. Nearly two in five voters say they’re less likely to vote for him because of his position on the bailout of General Motors and Chrysler.

 

 

MIVOTE on Mackinac

Mackinac Policy Conference 2012Maybe you don’t have a ticket to this year’s 2012 Mackinac Policy Conference, at which some of the region’s movers and shakers talk about the area’s future. (Trust me, those ticket are expensive.) Or, maybe driving to Mackinac and taking the ferry over isn’t your idea of fun.

We’ll have it all here on MIVOTE, with live streaming Tuesday thru Thursday. View the complete broadcast schedule. The latest complete agenda from the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce – the who and when – can be found here.

Watch the LIVE BROADCAST NOW >

Among the guests:

  • New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, a three-time Pulitzer Prize winner.
  • William Clay Ford, Jr., executive chairman of Ford Motor Company, who will talk about the future or urban mobility.
  • The “Big Five” –  Detroit Mayor Dave Bing, Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano, Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson, Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel, and Washtenaw County Commission Chairman Conan Smith.
  • Three of the candidates for U.S. Senate – Incumbent U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, and Republican challengers Clark Durant and Pete Hoekstra.

We’ll have it all here on MIVOTE.ORG.

Tim Kiska: What Would Coleman Do?

Former Detroit Mayor Coleman A. Young faced a heavy budget deficit and the possibility of a Lansing takeover in the early 1980s. Here’s what he did to solve the situation: Read More:

The Michigan And Ohio Primaries By The Numbers

Mitt Romney is having a tough time sealing the deal outside of the big cities. Read More: